Indian Louis Pascal, 4, and his Pilgrim partner David Garcia, 7, participate in the “ABC's of the First Thanksgiving” program Tuesday at Pablo Hamlet in Jacksonville Beach. Discovery Montessori School students performed the holiday program for the residents. BEAM delivered food baskets to 130 residents. The baskets were provided by several organizations including the PGA Tour, Jacksonville Beach Elementary School, Beach United Methodist Church and the Montessori school. (photo by Liza Mitchell)

How high will Beach home prices go and will prices continue the stratospheric soar seen here in the last five years?

Investors, real estate agents and homeowners are all asking the same questions.

That there has been a big increase in real estate prices at the Beaches is an absolute certainty.

How much higher home prices will go is less certain.

A home that five years ago sold for $250,000 to $300,00 will now sell for $500,000 - or more, said Jeanell Wilson, a long time real estate broker and owner of All South Realty in Jacksonville Beach.

And, in some cases now, "people are just putting things on the market to test the market," Wilson said.

"Things are appreciating so much and there are no comps [sales to compare values against], so we're seeing a lot of 'So and so said it will sell for....' so it goes on the market high and sometimes sells."

Often the high selling price surprises even the seller, according to real estate professionals.

Indeed, Wilson said she knows of appraisers who have redone appraisals after realizing that someone is indeed willing to pay a much higher price for a property than previously predicted.

Mike Graybeal, a trainee property appraiser who has been working at the Beach for a year, said he's pleased with his career choice as real estate is a booming business.

"Jacksonville is going up, but the Beaches are going up quicker," Graybeal said. "It might slow down a little, but not any time soon."

The market will come level, observers predict, citing inevitable economic factors such as higher interest rates.

Wilson said that while everything at the Beaches continues to get higher in price, there are indicators that the market has started to stabilize.

The market is slowing in the upper price ranges - $500,000 or more, Wilson said. She noted that duplexes on Second Street in Neptune Beach are not selling quickly when priced at $700,000 - a sign, she said, that the sky is not the limit.

Those who own Beaches real estate may see a slow down in property value appreciation, but Wilson said owners need not fear market adjustments.

"I've never seen real estate prices drop," said Wilson, a veteran of decades of selling and investing at the Beaches.

Fred Cattar of Cattar Realty said the Beaches real estate market is "crazy, though it has slowed down some."

Six months ago, there were often three or four buyers lining up to buy a property, but that is no longer the case, Cattar said.

Nowadays anyone asking a "ridiculously high" price will find the property just sitting on the market.

"I see things increasing 5 to 8 percent a year now, but not like the 15 to 25 percent in the past few years," Cattar said.

That said, however, the low end of the market at the Beaches is $250,000 to $300,000, he said, with even simple 1,000-square-foot cinder block homes priced above $200,000.

Judy Nicholson, a real estate agent with Watson Ponte Vedra, said the Beaches real estate market is strong and property is holding its value well even as the market levels off.

"It was a few months ago, a year ago when a house sold for $600,000 the person next door then would want $620,000 and the next guy would want even more," Nicholson said. "Those times are behind us. Things aren't going backward, but they're leveling off." She noted that there are still plenty of buyers, but they are carefully scrutinizing purchases and shopping for value as they are "worried about paying too much."

Nicholson, who has been selling real estate at the Beaches for 23 years, said when she started $125,000 for a home was a "nice sale."

Now only a few Ponte Vedra neighborhoods have homes available for less than $600,000, she said, adding that the average price for a Ponte Vedra home is even higher.

"If someone wants a home for $300,000 or $400,000, it's extremely hard to find," she said of Ponte Vedra homes available for purchase.

LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION

Graybeal, who graduated Fletcher High and Jacksonville University, said the best place to buy affordable housing right now is probably off of Mayport Road, where there are still a few bargains, he said.

"A lot of young people who grew up at the Beaches can't afford Jacksonville Beach and Neptune Beach, but they can reasonably afford there [off Mayport Road] for now," Graybeal said.

Wilson confirmed the Beaches remains a hot market, but said there is very little available for less than $300,000 on the barrier island, she noted.

On the west side of the Intracoastal Waterway, home prices are substantially lower. A year ago a home west of the Intracoastal Waterway that sold for $175,000 would cost $500,000 if it were located east of Third Street, Wilson said. Those $175,000 homes are getting harder to find too, she said.

"The average person can't buy at the Beaches," Wilson said. "A lot of people are priced out of the market. and, of course, all of us are saying 'why didn't we buy more property a few years ago?'" Wilson said.

"And if you sell your home for $500,000, then where are you going to live?" Wilson said.

Neptune Beach City Manager Jim Jarboe is very familiar with increased prices at the Beaches.

Jarboe, who grew up at the Beaches and once owned homes here, moved away several years ago for a job. When he returned, to take his current job, the former longtime resident said high prices had priced him out of the Beaches real estate market.

He asked for, and received, permission from the City Council to live outside Neptune Beach, when he said he could not find affordable housing in the city. Jarboe is paid $80,000 a year.

"If you live out here and want to sell, you can't afford to live here," Jarboe said. "It's out of sight" he said of home prices.

Jarboe said the recent real estate boom continues to bring change to the tiny city where his father was once town marshall.

In some cases, buyers are tearing down "perfectly good" homes to rebuild much larger homes on the lot, spending as much as $1 million or more on the home itself.

In other cases, large lots are being subdivided by a property owner trying to maximize potential profit.

For example, he said the Church of the Nazarene, located along Third Street, is relocating west of the Intracoastal Waterway to have room to expand and is selling its land at the Beaches to accommodate six or more single family homes.

But for every person who has lived at the Beaches for decades and marvels at what people are willing to pay for a home - there is someone new to town from California or another area who marvels at what a bargain real estate is at the Beaches, Wilson said.

"They think we're cheap compared to where they came from," she said.